The actual values for 12 periods (shown in order) are: (1) 45 (2) 52 (3) 48 (4)

Question

The actual values for 12 periods (shown in order) are: (1) 45 (2) 52 (3) 48 (4) 59 (5) 55 (6) 55 (7) 64 (8) 58 (9) 73 (10) 66 (11) 69 (12) 74

1. Using a 5 period simple moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be:

2. Using the 4 period weighted moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be:

3. With exponential smoothing, the forecast for period 13 will be:

4. With linear regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

5. With quadratic regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

6. Considering only the forecasts for period 6-12, what is the lowest MAD value for any of the methods?

Explanation / Answer

Lowest MAD value is 3.67 for trend

Period Data 5-SMA 4-WMA ES Trend Abs_Error_SMA Abs_Error_WMA Abs_Error_ES Abs_Error_Trend 1 45 46.75641026 2 52 49.27039627 3 48 51.78438228 4 59 54.2983683 5 55 55.16 53 56.81235431 6 55 51.8 55.39 53.46 59.32634033 3.2 0.39 1.54 4.326340326 7 64 53.8 55.11 53.8142 61.84032634 10.2 8.89 10.1858 2.15967366 8 58 56.2 60.79 56.156934 64.35431235 1.8 2.79 1.843066 6.354312354 9 73 58.2 59.23 56.58083918 66.86829837 14.8 13.77 16.41916082 6.131701632 10 66 61 67.84 60.35724617 69.38228438 5 1.84 5.642753831 3.382284382 11 69 63.2 67.12 61.65507955 71.8962704 5.8 1.88 7.34492045 2.896270396 12 74 66 68.21 63.34441125 74.41025641 8 5.79 10.65558875 0.41025641 13 68 72.03 65.79519667 76.92424242 MAD MAD MAD MAD 6.971428571 5.05 7.661612835 3.665834166 Trend SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.947401594 R Square 0.897569781 Adjusted R Square 0.887326759 Standard Error 3.211521363 Observations 12 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 903.777972 903.777972 87.62743946 2.90172E-06 Residual 10 103.1386946 10.31386946 Total 11 1006.916667 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 44.24242424 1.976554764 22.38360659 7.11964E-10 39.83838578 48.64646271 39.83838578 48.64646271 Period 2.513986014 0.268560908 9.360952914 2.90172E-06 1.915595021 3.112377007 1.915595021 3.112377007

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