This November, the US will hold Midterm Elections in which all 435 members of th

Question

This November, the US will hold Midterm Elections in which all 435 members of the House of Representatives run for office. According to Wikipedia (and various other sources), in modern times the President’s party loses, on average, 30 members in the House during the midterms. (In this election, the President is a Republican.)

a. Is Wikipedia predicting that in this midterm election Democrats will gain exactly 30 House seats?

b. Based on this statistic from Wikipedia, would you be surprised if the Democrats gained 29 members in the House? How about 31?

c. Would you be surprised if the Democrats gained only 12 members in the House? How about 48?

d. Along with the reported mean, what other information do we need to determine if the actual result in November is surprising?

Explanation / Answer

a) No, Wikipedia predicts that the party lossed average 30 members but not exactly.

b) The actual figures will not be exactly 30 but close to 30 (plus or minus). So 31 or 29 does not surprise me.

c) 12 and 48 are way far from the predicted one i.e. 30. So the results will surprise me

d) Along with mean, i need standard deviation to determine if actual results is surprising.

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