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[1](6) You are to selec allowed). You want to get a heart as the first card and

ID: 3074170 • Letter: #

Question

[1](6) You are to selec allowed). You want to get a heart as the first card and a King K as the second. t two cards one at a time from a well-shuffled deck of 52 playing cards (jokers not a) If you are given one of the following two options to do this, which option would you choose, Option #1: to be allowed to select the first card and put it back into the deck before selecting the second card, or . tion #2, to be allowed to keep the first card (not to put it back to the deck) and select the second one? Explain why you would think your choice is better than the other option. b) what is the probability to select such two cards under option #1? c) What is the probability to select such two cards under option #2? [21(4) Consider the following circumstance: Ten people are on a life raft in the middle of the ocean. It is sinking and help is nowhere in sight. It has been determined that the raft is carrying too heavy a load and one person has to go overboard. Of course, no one wants to be that person. To be fair, they decided to draw lots Ten straws were miraculously produced, 9 long and 1 short. They take turns drawing the stravw The first 6 people all drawn long straws, much to their relief. When it comes to the 7th person, he refused, saying the whole thing is not fair. He said the 1st person had 1 chance in 10 of going overboard, but now he has 1 in 4 (4 straws left, 1 short and 3 long). The odds of 1 in 4 are a great deal larger than those of 1 in 10 Does he have a case? Is the procedure not fair? If not fair, how would you make it fair? Explain.

Explanation / Answer

1)

a)I will choose the second option because there are 13 hearts while 4 kings so when i get the heart in first then i can increase the probability of getting the king in second by not putting the already selected card.

b)

in 1st option, we select one card then put it again in deck so

required probability =(13/52)*(4/52) =1/52 (because after 1st card selected then it again available for selection)

c)

In second option we have to not put the selected card again in the deck

so here is two possibilities

if King of heart selected at first then probability is (1/52)*(3/51)

if king of heart not selected at first then probability is (12/52)*(4/51)

so required probability =(1/52)*(3/51) +(12/52)*(4/51)=1/52

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