Let’s say you are a contestant on a game show. The host of the show presents you

Question

Let’s say you are a contestant on a game show. The host of the show presents you with a choice of three doors, which we will call doors 1, 2, and 3. You do not know what is behind each door, but you do know that behind two of the doors are beat up 1987 Hyundai Excels, and behind one of the doors is a brand new Cadillac Escalade. The cars were placed randomly behind the doors before the show, and the host knows which car is where. The way the game is played out is as follows. The host lets you choose a door. Assume you choose door #1. Before he opens door #1 to let you see what you have chosen, he opens one of the remaining doors, say door #3, to reveal a Hyundai Excel (he will always open one of the remaining doors that has the booby prize), and asks you whether or not you want to change your choice to door #2. What do you tell him?

Explanation / Answer

I will tell him that I would like to change to door #2. [ANSWER]

Why?

I am most probably wrong when I chose #1 (only 1/3 chance of winning). Upon eliminating one option, that didn't change the content of my door--I am stil most probably wrong.

Hence, to maximize my chances, I must change.

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