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Suppose a county’s recent health report gives a pet allergy prevalence of 0.18 f

ID: 3171050 • Letter: S

Question


Suppose a county’s recent health report gives a pet allergy prevalence of 0.18 for kids. There is a new at-home test kit for pet allergies on the market that provides families with a convenient way to test if children have a pet allergy. The probability that the test gives a positive result when a child really does not have a pet allergy is 0.06. The probability that the test gives a negative result when a child really does have a pet allergy is 0.19. The tree diagram shows the possible outcomes with the associated probabilities.

What is the probability of an incorrect test result? Give your answer as a decimal precise to two decimal places.

Pet allergy Status 0.18 0.82 Pet allergy No pet allergy Test result Positive 0.81 0.19 Negative Positive 0.06 0.94 Negative

Explanation / Answer

Probability of incorrect result will be  The probability that the test gives a positive result when a child really does not have a pet allergy +The probability that the test gives a negative result when a child really does have a pet allergy = 0.06*0.82+0.19*0.18 =0.0834

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