QUESTION 28 Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three q

Question

QUESTION 28

Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three quarters of the year for a quarterly series:

Quarter

Seasonal Index

Q1

73.4

Q2

80.6

Q3

108.2

Remember that the seasonal indices should average 100 so you should be able to infer the seasonal index for Q4.


Furthermore, suppose that the estimated coeffcients from a regression of the deseasonalized series on Time are given below:

Coefficients

Intercept

2,641

Time

52.7

What is the forecast for period 70, if period 70 is a Q1? (please round your answer to 1 decimal place)

Quarter

Seasonal Index

Q1

73.4

Q2

80.6

Q3

108.2

Explanation / Answer

here deseasonalized forecast for period 70 =2641+52.7*70=6330

hence seasonalized forecast =6330*73.4/100=4646.2

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