Use movng average model and calculate MSE for the following. Year Period U.S. Na
ID: 3250158 • Letter: U
Question
Use movng average model and calculate MSE for the following.
Year Period U.S. Nat Gas Total Consumption (Bcf) Forecasted 2008 Jan 2733.969 2008 Feb 2503.42 2008 Mar 2278.15 2008 Apr 1823.866 2008 May 1576.387 2008 Jun 1604.248 2008 Jul 1708.64 2008 Aug 1682.923 2008 Sep 1460.924 2008 Oct 1635.826 2008 Nov 1868.947 2008 Dec 2399.701 2009 Jan 2729.714 2009 Feb 2332.539 2009 Mar 2170.708 2009 Apr 1741.293 2009 May 1504 2009 Jun 1527.833 2009 Jul 1657.997 2009 Aug 1736.462 2009 Sep 1574.974 2009 Oct 1666.519 2009 Nov 1776.171 2009 Dec 2491.864 2010 Jan 2809.788 2010 Feb 2480.949 2010 Mar 2142.925 2010 Apr 1691.813 2010 May 1617.273 2010 Jun 1649.514 2010 Jul 1825.827 2010 Aug 1878.926 2010 Sep 1637.491 2010 Oct 1664.937 2010 Nov 1973.294 2010 Dec 2714.054 2011 Jan 2888.639 2011 Feb 2452.403 2011 Mar 2230.493 2011 Apr 1825.023 2011 May 1667.395 2011 Jun 1657.334 2011 Jul 1890.515 2011 Aug 1891.782 2011 Sep 1655.633 2011 Oct 1744.453 2011 Nov 2031.871 2011 Dec 2541.878 2012 Jan 2756.179 2012 Feb 2500.654 2012 Mar 2127.76 2012 Apr 1953.07 2012 May 1873.834 2012 Jun 1868.356 2012 Jul 2069.773 2012 Aug 2008.815 2012 Sep 1807.208 2012 Oct 1901.084 2012 Nov 2167.841 2012 Dec 2503.907 2013 Jan 2878.784 2013 Feb 2567.154 2013 Mar 2521.108 2013 Apr 1967.458 2013 May 1752.469 2013 Jun 1742.917 2013 Jul 1926.329 2013 Aug 1927.379 2013 Sep 1766.972 2013 Oct 1866.762 2013 Nov 2316.908 2013 Dec 2920.825 2014 Jan 3204.128 2014 Feb 2741.239 2014 Mar 2557.89 2014 Apr 1961.677 2014 May 1810.221 2014 Jun 1745.35 2014 Jul 1881.017 2014 Aug 1933.06 2014 Sep 1809.291 2014 Oct 1912.81 2014 Nov 2357.52 2014 Dec 2679.165 2015 Jan 3115.624 2015 Feb 2926.686 2015 Mar 2592.374 2015 Apr 2012.767 2015 May 1863.453 2015 Jun 1908.353 2015 Jul 2076.833 2015 Aug 2061.224 2015 Sep 1909.306 2015 Oct 1994.017 2015 Nov 2254.757 2015 Dec 2590.887 2016 Jan 3097.348 2016 Feb 2655.581 2016 Mar 2359.435 2016 Apr 2089.816 2016 May 1971.878 2016 Jun 2004.084 2016 Jul 2190.001 2016 Aug 2214.282 2016 Sep 1950.141 2016 Oct 1925.741 2016 Nov 2168.122 2016 Dec 2870.782 2017 Jan 2882.404 2017 Feb 2317.955 2017 Mar 2219.546 2017 Apr 2198.452 2017 May MSEExplanation / Answer
Year Period U.S. Nat Gas Total Consumption (Bcf) Forecasted Actual-Forecasted (Actual-Forecasted)^2 2008 Jan 2733.969 2008 Feb 2503.42 2008 Mar 2278.15 2618.6945 Avg of Jan-2008 and Feb-2008 -340.5445 115970.56 2008 Apr 1823.866 2390.785 Avg of Feb-2008 and Mar-2008 -566.919 321397.15 2008 May 1576.387 2051.008 Avg of Mar-2008 and Apr-2008 -474.621 225265.09 2008 Jun 1604.248 1700.1265 Avg of Apr-2008 and May-2008 -95.8785 9192.69 2008 Jul 1708.64 1590.3175 Avg of May-2008 and Jun-2008 118.3225 14000.21 2008 Aug 1682.923 1656.444 Avg of Jun-2008 and Jul-2008 26.479 701.14 2008 Sep 1460.924 1695.7815 Avg of Jul-2008 and Aug-2008 -234.8575 55158.05 2008 Oct 1635.826 1571.9235 Avg of Aug-2008 and Sep-2008 63.9025 4083.53 2008 Nov 1868.947 1548.375 Avg of Sep-2008 and Oct-2008 320.572 102766.41 2008 Dec 2399.701 1752.3865 Avg of Oct-2008 and Nov-2008 647.3145 419016.06 2009 Jan 2729.714 2134.324 Avg of Nov-2008 and Dec-2008 595.39 354489.25 2009 Feb 2332.539 2564.7075 Avg of Dec-2008 and Jan-2009 -232.1685 53902.21 2009 Mar 2170.708 2531.1265 Avg of Jan-2009 and Feb-2009 -360.4185 129901.50 2009 Apr 1741.293 2251.6235 Avg of Feb-2009 and Mar-2009 -510.3305 260437.22 2009 May 1504 1956.0005 Avg of Mar-2009 and Apr-2009 -452.0005 204304.45 2009 Jun 1527.833 1622.6465 Avg of Apr-2009 and May-2009 -94.8135 8989.60 2009 Jul 1657.997 1515.9165 Avg of May-2009 and Jun-2009 142.0805 20186.87 2009 Aug 1736.462 1592.915 Avg of Jun-2009 and Jul-2009 143.547 20605.74 2009 Sep 1574.974 1697.2295 Avg of Jul-2009 and Aug-2009 -122.2555 14946.41 2009 Oct 1666.519 1655.718 Avg of Aug-2009 and Sep-2009 10.801 116.66 2009 Nov 1776.171 1620.7465 Avg of Sep-2009 and Oct-2009 155.4245 24156.78 2009 Dec 2491.864 1721.345 Avg of Oct-2009 and Nov-2009 770.519 593699.53 2010 Jan 2809.788 2134.0175 Avg of Nov-2009 and Dec-2009 675.7705 456665.77 2010 Feb 2480.949 2650.826 Avg of Dec-2009 and Jan-2010 -169.877 28858.20 2010 Mar 2142.925 2645.3685 Avg of Jan-2010 and Feb-2010 -502.4435 252449.47 2010 Apr 1691.813 2311.937 Avg of Feb-2010 and Mar-2010 -620.124 384553.78 2010 May 1617.273 1917.369 Avg of Mar-2010 and Apr-2010 -300.096 90057.61 2010 Jun 1649.514 1654.543 Avg of Apr-2010 and May-2010 -5.029 25.29 2010 Jul 1825.827 1633.3935 Avg of May-2010 and Jun-2010 192.4335 37030.65 2010 Aug 1878.926 1737.6705 Avg of Jun-2010 and Jul-2010 141.2555 19953.12 2010 Sep 1637.491 1852.3765 Avg of Jul-2010 and Aug-2010 -214.8855 46175.78 2010 Oct 1664.937 1758.2085 Avg of Aug-2010 and Sep-2010 -93.2715 8699.57 2010 Nov 1973.294 1651.214 Avg of Sep-2010 and Oct-2010 322.08 103735.53 2010 Dec 2714.054 1819.1155 Avg of Oct-2010 and Nov-2010 894.9385 800914.92 2011 Jan 2888.639 2343.674 Avg of Nov-2010 and Dec-2010 544.965 296986.85 2011 Feb 2452.403 2801.3465 Avg of Dec-2010 and Jan-2011 -348.9435 121761.57 2011 Mar 2230.493 2670.521 Avg of Jan-2011 and Feb-2011 -440.028 193624.64 2011 Apr 1825.023 2341.448 Avg of Feb-2011 and Mar-2011 -516.425 266694.78 2011 May 1667.395 2027.758 Avg of Mar-2011 and Apr-2011 -360.363 129861.49 2011 Jun 1657.334 1746.209 Avg of Apr-2011 and May-2011 -88.875 7898.77 2011 Jul 1890.515 1662.3645 Avg of May-2011 and Jun-2011 228.1505 52052.65 2011 Aug 1891.782 1773.9245 Avg of Jun-2011 and Jul-2011 117.8575 13890.39 2011 Sep 1655.633 1891.1485 Avg of Jul-2011 and Aug-2011 -235.5155 55467.55 2011 Oct 1744.453 1773.7075 Avg of Aug-2011 and Sep-2011 -29.2545 855.83 2011 Nov 2031.871 1700.043 Avg of Sep-2011 and Oct-2011 331.828 110109.82 2011 Dec 2541.878 1888.162 Avg of Oct-2011 and Nov-2011 653.716 427344.61 2012 Jan 2756.179 2286.8745 Avg of Nov-2011 and Dec-2011 469.3045 220246.71 2012 Feb 2500.654 2649.0285 Avg of Dec-2011 and Jan-2012 -148.3745 22014.99 2012 Mar 2127.76 2628.4165 Avg of Jan-2012 and Feb-2012 -500.6565 250656.93 2012 Apr 1953.07 2314.207 Avg of Feb-2012 and Mar-2012 -361.137 130419.93 2012 May 1873.834 2040.415 Avg of Mar-2012 and Apr-2012 -166.581 27749.23 2012 Jun 1868.356 1913.452 Avg of Apr-2012 and May-2012 -45.096 2033.65 2012 Jul 2069.773 1871.095 Avg of May-2012 and Jun-2012 198.678 39472.95 2012 Aug 2008.815 1969.0645 Avg of Jun-2012 and Jul-2012 39.7505 1580.10 2012 Sep 1807.208 2039.294 Avg of Jul-2012 and Aug-2012 -232.086 53863.91 2012 Oct 1901.084 1908.0115 Avg of Aug-2012 and Sep-2012 -6.9275 47.99 2012 Nov 2167.841 1854.146 Avg of Sep-2012 and Oct-2012 313.695 98404.55 2012 Dec 2503.907 2034.4625 Avg of Oct-2012 and Nov-2012 469.4445 220378.14 2013 Jan 2878.784 2335.874 Avg of Nov-2012 and Dec-2012 542.91 294751.27 2013 Feb 2567.154 2691.3455 Avg of Dec-2012 and Jan-2013 -124.1915 15423.53 2013 Mar 2521.108 2722.969 Avg of Jan-2013 and Feb-2013 -201.861 40747.86 2013 Apr 1967.458 2544.131 Avg of Feb-2013 and Mar-2013 -576.673 332551.75 2013 May 1752.469 2244.283 Avg of Mar-2013 and Apr-2013 -491.814 241881.01 2013 Jun 1742.917 1859.9635 Avg of Apr-2013 and May-2013 -117.0465 13699.88 2013 Jul 1926.329 1747.693 Avg of May-2013 and Jun-2013 178.636 31910.82 2013 Aug 1927.379 1834.623 Avg of Jun-2013 and Jul-2013 92.756 8603.68 2013 Sep 1766.972 1926.854 Avg of Jul-2013 and Aug-2013 -159.882 25562.25 2013 Oct 1866.762 1847.1755 Avg of Aug-2013 and Sep-2013 19.5865 383.63 2013 Nov 2316.908 1816.867 Avg of Sep-2013 and Oct-2013 500.041 250041.00 2013 Dec 2920.825 2091.835 Avg of Oct-2013 and Nov-2013 828.99 687224.42 2014 Jan 3204.128 2618.8665 Avg of Nov-2013 and Dec-2013 585.2615 342531.02 2014 Feb 2741.239 3062.4765 Avg of Dec-2013 and Jan-2014 -321.2375 103193.53 2014 Mar 2557.89 2972.6835 Avg of Jan-2014 and Feb-2014 -414.7935 172053.65 2014 Apr 1961.677 2649.5645 Avg of Feb-2014 and Mar-2014 -687.8875 473189.21 2014 May 1810.221 2259.7835 Avg of Mar-2014 and Apr-2014 -449.5625 202106.44 2014 Jun 1745.35 1885.949 Avg of Apr-2014 and May-2014 -140.599 19768.08 2014 Jul 1881.017 1777.7855 Avg of May-2014 and Jun-2014 103.2315 10656.74 2014 Aug 1933.06 1813.1835 Avg of Jun-2014 and Jul-2014 119.8765 14370.38 2014 Sep 1809.291 1907.0385 Avg of Jul-2014 and Aug-2014 -97.7475 9554.57 2014 Oct 1912.81 1871.1755 Avg of Aug-2014 and Sep-2014 41.6345 1733.43 2014 Nov 2357.52 1861.0505 Avg of Sep-2014 and Oct-2014 496.4695 246481.96 2014 Dec 2679.165 2135.165 Avg of Oct-2014 and Nov-2014 544 295936.00 2015 Jan 3115.624 2518.3425 Avg of Nov-2014 and Dec-2014 597.2815 356745.19 2015 Feb 2926.686 2897.3945 Avg of Dec-2014 and Jan-2015 29.2915 857.99 2015 Mar 2592.374 3021.155 Avg of Jan-2015 and Feb-2015 -428.781 183853.15 2015 Apr 2012.767 2759.53 Avg of Feb-2015 and Mar-2015 -746.763 557654.98 2015 May 1863.453 2302.5705 Avg of Mar-2015 and Apr-2015 -439.1175 192824.18 2015 Jun 1908.353 1938.11 Avg of Apr-2015 and May-2015 -29.757 885.48 2015 Jul 2076.833 1885.903 Avg of May-2015 and Jun-2015 190.93 36454.26 2015 Aug 2061.224 1992.593 Avg of Jun-2015 and Jul-2015 68.631 4710.21 2015 Sep 1909.306 2069.0285 Avg of Jul-2015 and Aug-2015 -159.7225 25511.28 2015 Oct 1994.017 1985.265 Avg of Aug-2015 and Sep-2015 8.752 76.60 2015 Nov 2254.757 1951.6615 Avg of Sep-2015 and Oct-2015 303.0955 91866.88 2015 Dec 2590.887 2124.387 Avg of Oct-2015 and Nov-2015 466.5 217622.25 2016 Jan 3097.348 2422.822 Avg of Nov-2015 and Dec-2015 674.526 454985.32 2016 Feb 2655.581 2844.1175 Avg of Dec-2015 and Jan-2016 -188.5365 35546.01 2016 Mar 2359.435 2876.4645 Avg of Jan-2016 and Feb-2016 -517.0295 267319.50 2016 Apr 2089.816 2507.508 Avg of Feb-2016 and Mar-2016 -417.692 174466.61 2016 May 1971.878 2224.6255 Avg of Mar-2016 and Apr-2016 -252.7475 63881.30 2016 Jun 2004.084 2030.847 Avg of Apr-2016 and May-2016 -26.763 716.26 2016 Jul 2190.001 1987.981 Avg of May-2016 and Jun-2016 202.02 40812.08 2016 Aug 2214.282 2097.0425 Avg of Jun-2016 and Jul-2016 117.2395 13745.10 2016 Sep 1950.141 2202.1415 Avg of Jul-2016 and Aug-2016 -252.0005 63504.25 2016 Oct 1925.741 2082.2115 Avg of Aug-2016 and Sep-2016 -156.4705 24483.02 2016 Nov 2168.122 1937.941 Avg of Sep-2016 and Oct-2016 230.181 52983.29 2016 Dec 2870.782 2046.9315 Avg of Oct-2016 and Nov-2016 823.8505 678729.65 2017 Jan 2882.404 2519.452 Avg of Nov-2016 and Dec-2016 362.952 131734.15 2017 Feb 2317.955 2876.593 Avg of Dec-2016 and Jan-2017 -558.638 312076.42 2017 Mar 2219.546 2600.1795 Avg of Jan-2017 and Feb-2017 -380.6335 144881.86 2017 Apr 2198.452 2268.7505 Avg of Feb-2017 and Mar-2017 -70.2985 4941.88 2017 May 2208.999 Avg of Mar-2017 and Apr-2017 MSE Total of sum of sq --> 15894050.09 Mean of sq error(MSE)= Sum of Sq/number of elements = 15894050.09/144491.36 144491.36
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