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Problem 1. For this problem use EconData.xls. First step. Clean the data. Step 2

ID: 3261431 • Letter: P

Question

Problem 1. For this problem use EconData.xls.

First step. Clean the data. Step 2. Find the strongest related two factors(columns).Step 3. Create a model to analyze the relationship between these two factors. Is the model statistically significant? How good is the model?

RegressionData (1) Excel File Home Insert Page Layout Formulas Data Review View Tell me what you want to do H22 Year 1952 1956 Unemployment 3.1 Inflation Presidential Approval Consumer Confidence 32 86.2 100.2 90.1 99.9 91.7 90.7 87.0 76.7 95.7 93.0 85.3 99.2 107.6 92.8 55.3 82.7 91.7 2.2 4.8 5.4 1.4 1.4 4 57 73 5.7 7.7 6.3 1972 6.3 14.2 4.7 1976 37 58 53 37 54 5.7 12 1992 5.5 2.7 3.2 1.7 47 31 51 16 17 18 19 4.9 8.3 4.9 2012 2016 23 NOTE: 24 Unemployment rate, and inflation rate, in February of post-WW2 presidential election years 25 Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Data ("FRED" 27 Presidential approval: Average approval poll rating for the incumbent president Diab Sheet1 Sheet2EconPop USA-Pop Ready

Explanation / Answer

The Excel output of the Correlation analysis ( In Data Analysis Toolpack ) is:

Since the highest correlation is between Consumer Confidence and Presidential Approval, so these factors are the most related ones.

The output from Regression (Data Analysis Toolpack) is:

Since the signicance value 0.0011 is less than 0.05, the model is statistically significant

Unemployment Inflation Presidential Approval Consumer Confidence Unemployment 1 Inflation 0.342749245 1 Presidential Approval 0.014608191 -0.412904062 1 Consumer Confidence -0.172361146 -0.393526596 0.720385707 1
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