A third-order autoregressive model for four years of the monthly price of apples

Question

A third-order autoregressive model for four years of the monthly price of apples is shown below. The table shows the apple prices for the first year. Using the values from the tablebelow, what is the predicted value for Jan of the Second year?

A)128.84

B)133.08

C)130.76

D)133.50

E)128.42

Month Jan Feb Mar AprMa Price 129 36 130.01 128.18 128.22 13098 131.21 121.57 111.64 129.62 129.40 129.47 130.00 y Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Final Estimates of Parameters Coef SE Coef Type Constant Lagi Lag2 Lag3 1.223 8.00 0.000 0.1898 4.51 0.000 0.1603 4.61 0.000 0.1959 -1.39 0.009 9.784 0.6456 0.4836 -0.1764

Explanation / Answer

here predicted value =9.784*0.6456*last month +0.4836*2 month back-0.1764*3 month back

=9.784+0.6456*130+0.4836*129.47-0.1764*129.40=133.50

hence option D is correct

Related Questions

Navigate

• Browse (All)
• Browse A
• Subjects

---

---

Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.