Problem 3: The Monty Hall Problem. This is a much discussed puzzle, based on an
ID: 3338976 • Letter: P
Question
Problem 3: The Monty Hall Problem. This is a much discussed puzzle, based on an old American game show. You are told that a prize is equally likely to be found behind any one of three closed doors in front of you. You point to one of the doors. A friend opens for you one of the remaining two doors, after making sure that the prize is not behind it. At this point, you can stick to your initial choice, or switch to the other unopened door. You win the prize if it lies behind your final choice of a door. Consider the following strategies: a. Stick to your initial choice b. Switch to the other unopened door. Which is the best strategy?
Explanation / Answer
A prize is equally likely to be found behind any one of three closed doors.
a)
point any one of the door if there is prize then you own in single trial.
if there is not prize then you came on original position again open the door.
probability of winning a prize in this situation is 1/3.
b)
point any one of the door if there is prize then you own in single trial.
if there is not prize then you may open the second or third door.
probability of winning a prize in this situation is 1/2.
The Strategy 2 is the best stratagy because probability of win when going back to initial situation is less than the probability of win when switch to other unopeaned door. may cause to increase in the chance of winning.
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