Calculate MAD, MAPD of the following forecasting method. Also calculate MSE. Per
ID: 351277 • Letter: C
Question
Calculate MAD, MAPD of the following forecasting method. Also calculate MSE.
Period.........Demand.......Forecasts ......
1...................256....................-- ........
2...................270....................242 ......
3...................248....................250 ......
4...................265....................241 ......
5...................244....................259......
Absolute error of period 2:
Absolute error of period 3:
Absolute error of period 4:
Absolute error of period 5:
MAD:
MSE:
Absolute percentage error of period 2:
Absolute percentage error of period 3:
Absolute percentage error of period 4:
Absolute percentage error of period 5:
MAPD:
Explanation / Answer
To calculate MAD, MAPD and MSE we have to first calculate the errors, absolute errors and squared errors and absolute percentage error for period 2 through 5.
Where, error = actual value - forecasted value
Absolute error = absolute value of error
Squared error = square of error
Absolute percentage error = (absolute error/actual value) 100
So using the above formula the forecast errors, squared errors, absolute errors and absolute percentage errors are
MAD = Sum of the absolute errors for all the periods / number of periods
= (28+2+24+15)/4
= 69/4
= 17.25
MAPD = Sum of the absolute percentage errors for all the periods / number of periods
= (10.37%+0.81%+9.06%+6.15%)/4
= 26.39%/4
= 6.60%
MSE = Sum of the squared errors for all the periods /number of periods
= (784+4+576+225)/4
= 1589/4
= 397.25
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