11) Using PERT, Adam Munson was able to determine that the expected project comp

Question

11) Using PERT, Adam Munson was able to determine that the expected project completion time for the construction of a pleasure yacht is 21 months, and the project variance is 4. (20 points) What is the probability that the project will be completed in 17 months? What is the probability that the project will be completed in 20 m What is the probability that the project will be completed in 23 months? What is the probability that the project will be completed in 25 months? What is the due date that yields a 95% chance of completion? a. b. c. d. e. onths?

Explanation / Answer

Completion time of the construction of yatch = 21 months

Variance = 4

Standard deviation = Square root of 4 = 2

1. Probability of completion in 17 months

Z = (17-21)/2 = -2

P(-2) = looking up from the table = 0.02275

2. Probability of completion in 20 months

Z = (20-21)/2 = -0.5

P(-0.5) = looking up from the table = 0.30854

3. Probability of completion in 23 months

Z = (23-21)/2 = 1

P(1) = looking up from the table = 0.84134

4. Probability of completion in 25 months

Z = (25-21)/2 = 2

P(2) = looking up from the table = 0.97725

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