1. In the Delphi method, the forecast is obtained through a comparative analysis

Question

1. In the Delphi method, the forecast is obtained through a comparative analysis with a previous situation a. True b. False 2. A seasonal effect in a time series is relatively long-term effect compared to a cyclical effect 3. A seasonal effect is one that repeats at fixed intervals of time, typically a year, month, week, or day 4. Moving average and exponential smoothing models work best for stationary time series 5. A(n) a. True b. False a. True b. False a. True b. False is a stream of historical data a) index. borthopole. cltime series d) irrational number 6. What is the gradual shift in the value of the time series known as? a) a smoothing constant b) a coordinate c) a trendd) a weight 7. Which of the following uses a panel of experts, whose identities are typically kept confidential from one another, to respond to a sequence of questionnaires? a) the Simple Moving average method b) the Delphi method of forecasting c) the method of Historical Analogy d) the Simple Exponential Smoothing method 8. The Delphi method of forecasting a) promotes unbiased exchanges of ideas and discussion and usually results in some convergence of opinion b) uses measures that are believed to influence the behavior of a variable that the researcher wishes to forecast c) uses a single measure that weights multiple indicators and provides a measure of overall expectation d) obtains forecasts through a comparative analysis with a previous situation 9.In the context of time series, a cyclical effect differs from a seasonal effect in that the cyclical effect a) relates to much longer-term behavior b) does not show a gradual shift in the time series c) relates to much shorter-term behavior d) shows a gradual shift in the time serie

Explanation / Answer

Ans 1: False

Explanation: Delphi method is forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts answering a series of questionnaires in two or more rounds.

Ans 2: False

Explanation: A seasonal effect exhibits a short-term behaviour typically less than or equal to a year while cyclical effect describes a long-term behaviour which is more than a year.

Ans 3: True

Explanation: The Seasonal effect is the one that repeats at fixed intervals of time, typically a year, month, week, or day.

Ans 4: True

Explanation: Moving average and exponential smoothing are useful when the data series remains fairly steady over time.

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