An electrical contractor\'s records during the last five weeks indicate the numb

Question

An electrical contractor's records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests: Week: 1 2 3 4 5 Requests: 23 25 23 24 25 Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods: a. Naive. Number of requests J b. A four-period moving average. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) Number of requests c. Exponential smoothing with a = .25. Use 23 for week 2 forecast. (Round your intermediate forecast values and final answer to 2 decimal places.) Number of Requests

Explanation / Answer

Answer A;- Naïve

Number of requests:- 25

Reason:- In Naïve method, the forecasted value of next period is taken similar to the actual value of last period.

Answer B:- A four period moving average:-

Number of requests:- (25+23+24+25)/4=24.25

Answer C:- Exponential smoothing forecasting = Ft = Ft-1 +(At-1-Ft-1)

Week

Requests

Forecast

1

23

2

25

23

3

23

23.5

4

24

23.38

5

25

23.54

Ft = Ft-1 +(At-1-Ft-1)

For third week:- Ft =23+0.25(25-23)=23.5

For fourth week:- Ft =23.5+0.25(23-23.5)=23.38

For fifth week:- =23.38+0.25(24-23.38)=23.54

For sixth week:- =23.54+0.25(25-23.54)=23.91

Week

Forecast

2

23

3

23.5

4

23.38

5

23.54

6

23.91

Week

Requests

Forecast

1

23

2

25

23

3

23

23.5

4

24

23.38

5

25

23.54

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