a. How long is the project likely to? take? ?(Make sure to round all intermediat

Question

a. How long is the project likely to? take? ?(Make sure to round all intermediate calculations for te to two decimal? places.)

b. What is the probability that the project will take more than ?weeks? Refer to the standard normal table

a. How long is the project likely to? take? ?(Make sure to round all intermediate calculations for te to two decimal? places.)

b. What is the probability that the project will take more than ?weeks? Refer to the standard normal table

C. Consider the path? What is the probability that this path will exceed the expected project? duration? Refer to the standard normal table

Explanation / Answer

Answer:

We assume that the probability of project completion is to be calculated for scheduled 63 weeks (since nothing is given in question)

a. Estimated time to complete the project = (Optimistic Value + 4 x Most Likely Value + Pessimistic Value) / 6 = 63.98 weeks or 64 weeks approx.

Variance = [(Pessimistic - Optimistic) / 6]2

b. Probability that the project will take more than 63 weeks, Z = (63 - 64) / (7.25)1/2 = - 0.3714

on refering the standard table we get the probability of 0.6443 or 64.43%.

Thus, there is 64.43% probability that the project will take more than 63 weeks to complete.

Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Estimated Variance A 7 10 11 9.67 0.44 B 5 8 16 8.83 3.36 C 6 8 9 7.83 0.25 D 1 2 4 2.16 0.25 E 7 10 11 9.67 0.44 F 4 6 7 5.83 0.25 G 2 3 6 3.33 0.44 H 3 5 8 5.16 0.69 I 2 4 6 4.00 0.44 J 4 5 9 5.50 0.69 K 2 2 2 2.00 0 63 63.98 or 64 7.25

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