Cliff is playing a four person card game with friends. He thinks he is skilled a

Question

Cliff is playing a four person card game with friends. He thinks he is skilled and has a better chance of winning than random chance, so he estimates that his probability of winning an individual card game is 0.4. Assuming that each card game played is independent of the other card games, Cliff announces that his probability of winning both card games is 0.8. What is the best assessment of this statement?

a. This is a correct probability calculation because Cliff just adds the probability of winning each card game.

b. This is an incorrect probability calculation because Cliff should have multiplied the probability of winning each card game.

c. This is an incorrect probability calculation because Cliff should have used the formula Pr(A or B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) - Pr(A and B).

d. This is an incorrect probability calculation because Cliff did not use the normal distribution.

Explanation / Answer

This is an incorrect probability calculation because Cliff should have multiplied the probability of winning each card game.

Option B is correct.

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