Using the TGT quarterly sales data: A. Fit a regression model with a time-trend

Question

Using the TGT quarterly sales data:

A. Fit a regression model with a time-trend and seasonal dummy variables.

B. For the time-trend and seasonal dummy variables, note whether the coefficient estimates are statistically significant.

C. Using the regression results, forecast sales for each fiscal quarter ending in 2017.

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Explanation / Answer

use =IF((MOD(C2,4)=1),1,0)   for Q1

=IF((MOD(C2,4)=2),1,0) for Q2

=IF((MOD(C2,4)=3),1,0) for Q3

y^ = 20387.66234 + 62.806818*t -5042.3896*Q1 -4925.44643*Q2 -4798.378247 *Q3

b) all variables are significant as their p-value is less than 0.05

c)

respectively

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Sales Period Q1 Q2 Q3 14833 1 1 0 0 15067 2 0 1 0 15276 3 0 0 1 20181 4 0 0 0 15593 5 1 0 0 15532 6 0 1 0 15605 7 0 0 1 20661 8 0 0 0 15935 9 1 0 0 16240 10 0 1 0 16402 11 0 0 1 21288 12 0 0 0 16867 13 1 0 0 16779 14 0 1 0 16929 15 0 0 1 22726 16 0 0 0 16706 17 1 0 0 17117 18 0 1 0 17258 19 0 0 1 21515 20 0 0 0 17050 21 1 0 0 17406 22 0 1 0 17732 23 0 0 1 21751 24 0 0 0 17119 25 1 0 0 17427 26 0 1 0 17613 27 0 0 1 21626 28 0 0 0 16196 29 1 0 0 16169 30 0 1 0 16441 31 0 0 1

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