The baseball world series consists of up to 7 games. The first team to win the 4

Question

The baseball world series consists of up to 7 games. The first team to win the 4 games wins the series. The first two are played at one team's home ballpark, the next three at other team's park, and the final two (if needed) are played at the first park. Records over the past century show that there is a home field advantage; the home team has about 55% chance of winning. Does the currenct system of alternating ballparks even out the home field advantage? How often will the team that begins at home win the series?

Let set up the simulation.

1. What is the component to be repeated?

2. How will you model each component from equally likely random digits?

3. How will you model a trial by combining components?

4. What is the response variable?

5. How will you analyze the response variable?

Explanation / Answer

1,2,3: Random Set(like n sets) of 1 or 0 numbers with sample size of 7, where 1 represents winning at home game, with the following frequency

where x1,x2... x7 will have 1/0 as values and x1,x2,x6,x7 has 1 55% times and x3,x4,x5 has 1 45% times in the simulation

Finding out in these set, how many have four 1s, let us denote this by k

and our reqd probabolity of winning is k/n

4. Response variable is the sum of wins which should be greater than or equal to 4

5. As explained above, from the simulation we can get the value of required probability

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