After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded

Question

After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate of trend is based on the net change of 30 for the 3 periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +10 units. Use a=.5 and B=.4 and TAF of 250 for period 5. Obtain forecasts for periods 6 through 10.

period         actual        period           actual

1                210               6                  265

2                224               7                  272    

3                229               8                  285

4                240               9                  294

5                255               10

Explanation / Answer

TAF6 = S5 + T5
TAF6 = (0.5

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